Business News, December 14

1. Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of caustic soda declined this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the Shandong market was around 973.33 yuan/ton, and the average price on the weekend was 966.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68%. On December 13, the caustic soda commodity index was 139.09, the same as yesterday, a decrease of 32.76% from the cycle high of 206.87 points (2017-11-14), and an increase of 89.83% from the lowest point of 73.27 on March 29, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present)

2. Market analysis

Product: The price of caustic soda declined slightly this week. The overall market for caustic soda in Shandong is stable, and the mainstream price of 32% of the local caustic soda is 880-920 yuan/ton. Poor downstream demand, unsatisfactory corporate sales, and average actual transactions. Alumina companies have limited production, demand has decreased, and supply has been relatively stable. It is expected that the price will be stable in the near future, and there is no shortage of possible downward adjustments. In the lower reaches of Shandong, due to environmental protection, the start-up is unstable and the demand is shrinking. The chlor-alkali enterprises are operating at a high level and oversupply. The market situation of caustic soda in Jiangsu area is general, the mainstream price of 32% caustic soda is 850-960 yuan/ton, which can be negotiated, the demand is not good, and the sales of enterprises are not smooth. It is expected that the short-term price will be weak. Hebei 890-980 yuan/ton; Tianjin 3200-3300 yuan/ton (100% off); Zhejiang to Xiaoshao distributors 1000-1030 yuan/ton; Anhui 860-910 yuan/ton; Jiangxi region 900-980 yuan/ Tons; Hubei 1080-1130 yuan/ton; Henan 3350-3450 yuan/ton (100% off); Inner Mongolia 2900-3050 yuan/ton (100% off).

Industry chain: The overall trend of China's liquid caustic soda market declined slightly. The liquid caustic soda market in North China and Shandong was largely stable this week. Some chlor-alkali companies adjusted their prices flexibly according to their own inventory. In the heating season, alumina companies have reduced production less, which has not affected the amount of caustic soda for the time being. However, the high inventory of liquid caustic soda in the alumina industry in Henan, coupled with abundant supply of flake caustic soda, has not been enthusiastic about replenishing liquid caustic soda in the near future. The downstream of other soda use was affected by environmental protection and started poorly, and the demand for caustic soda was shrinking.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 49th week of 2018 (12.3-12.7), there are 2 kinds of commodities that have risen in the price list of the chlor-alkali industry, 2 kinds of commodities have fallen, and 1 kind of commodities have risen or fallen 0. The main commodities that rose were: PVC (1.54%) and light soda ash (1.22%); the main commodities that fell were: caustic soda (-2.99%) and calcium carbide (-0.58%). The average increase and decrease this week was -0.16%.

Business analysts believe that: in the traditional off-season, the overall operating load of chlor-alkali enterprises is relatively high, and there is still no major improvement in demand, but the sales of caustic soda are still acceptable. The alumina industry started about 89%, viscose staple fiber started stable at 81%, and the demand for caustic soda was average. The overall forecast is that the price of caustic soda in the later period will continue to consolidate in the near future, depending on the downstream market demand.